What major changes are coming to New Zealand’s immigration policies in 2022?

The lasting impression of New Zealand immigration in 2021 can be summed up in one word: “amnesty”. On the morning of 30 September, New Zealand Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced a new resident visa category: the One-off Resident Visa. Immigration New Zealand (INZ) estimated that 165,000 people would be eligible to apply for resident visas through this pathway and obtain permanent residence. Its broad eligibility, large number of potential applicants and fast processing prompted major Chinese-language media outlets to describe it as an immigration “amnesty”.

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The highlights of 2021 were dazzling. So where will New Zealand, a country with a long tradition of immigration, head in the coming year? I believe 2022 will be a positive and busy year, with many major programmes and new areas about to open up. Let’s take a look:

March 2022: the One-off Resident Visa takes centre stage

 

INZ says applications and processing for the One-off Resident Visa will be fast. But just how fast?

 

INZ has promised “rapid processing” (Fast Processing), but at the time of writing, in late December, the situation was disappointing: only a small proportion of applications had been processed.

 

Of these procedures, the national security check (National Security Check) is probably the most time-consuming and labour-intensive part of processing. NSCs are carried out by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS), which generally commissions trusted channels to conduct comprehensive investigations into applicants’ backgrounds. The investigation process, methods, timeframes and human and material resources involved are not transparent and lie outside INZ’s control, making this a lengthy process full of unknowns.

 

The list of countries whose citizens are subject to NSCs is also not public. Chinese citizens face a high likelihood of an NSC because the ideology of China’s political system differs from that of mainstream Western countries, such as the Five Eyes nations, extending visa processing times.

April 2022: borders reopen

 

When can we return to New Zealand?

 

Step one: from 27 February, New Zealanders in Australia who have received two doses of a COVID vaccine can return to New Zealand, but must self-isolate;

 

Step two: from mid-March, the border will open to eligible people from other countries, and working holiday schemes will restart. This stage primarily targets workers in essential industries;

 

Step three: from 12 April, the border will open to large numbers of international students and eligible temporary visa holders;

 

Step four: before July, the border will open to Australian residents and a wider range of work visa holders;

 

Step five: from October, normal visa applications will resume for all tourists and international students, who will be allowed to enter with their visas.

 

July 2022: the six-in-one work visa launches

 

Following its reform of the existing work visa framework in 2021, INZ has gradually put the processes and systems in place. Employer accreditation applications across New Zealand will open on 9 May 2022, and the “six-in-one work visa”, the Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV), will launch on 4 July. This means employers needing to sponsor employee visas after 4 July 2022 must plan ahead and become accredited in advance. Otherwise, they will be unable to sponsor employees’ work visa applications, let alone recruit staff from overseas to work in New Zealand.

 

The median wage is expected to rise to NZ$27.76 an hour, or NZ$57,740.80 a year. Wages exceeding the median by 200% may qualify for an exemption from the labour market test.

Late 2022: New Zealand’s Skilled Migrant Category (SMC) reopens

 

When will it reopen? I believe it is very likely to be in July 2022, after processing of One-off Resident Visas is complete. We will have to wait and see. The skilled migrant pathway cannot remain closed forever: there must be a new route to permanent residence, otherwise more migrants will leave New Zealand.

Throughout 2022: offshore residence applications reopen

 

In early December 2021, the Supreme Court ruled that residence applications submitted offshore while the border was still open should be processed to completion. The reason was that the border instructions in force when the applications were submitted imposed no border restrictions on resident visa holders.

 

Following this ruling, INZ will complete the processing of offshore residence applications in the order received. Around 4000 people overseas who already hold resident visas but have been unable to enter are also protected by the High Court ruling. This means these visa holders can now enter New Zealand if they meet the requirements of the Air Border Order, such as holding an MIQ voucher and undergoing pre-departure testing. People granted visas through the One-off Resident Visa scheme can also enter New Zealand if they are overseas.

 

Processing these applications is expected to take up some INZ staff time. Management is unlikely to have anticipated the staffing demands of this unexpected development, and the ruling is very likely to delay other visa applications.

 

The keyword for 2022: slow!

 

The data shows that INZ continues to pick up speed in processing One-off Resident Visas, giving considerable hope that it can fulfil its promise that “most applications are expected to be processed within 12 months, with many processed much faster”. However, with so many major changes approaching, I expect INZ will only reach peak efficiency after the end of 2022, once it has had time to adjust.

 

The major changes outlined above may have little short-term economic impact, as there is no major net change in the workforce. Over the longer term, a large influx of migrant labour is expected, reducing demand.

 

The impact of immigration policy on the housing market in 2022

Once granted residence, most migrants are no longer subject to OIO restrictions and can buy homes. There is currently no data from which to conclude whether this will have a significant impact on the property market, but we can reasonably expect demand for homes in desirable locations, such as the Double Grammar Zone, to remain steady.

 

This will need to be balanced against mortgage interest rates and available purchasing power. However, the simple law of supply and demand will make an overall conclusion easy to draw.

Where will migrants and workers be in 2022?

 

I expect INZ to be overstretched in 2022, with processing delays across many programmes. INZ has been grappling with workflow challenges for the past 10 years, and this year will be no exception. Adjusting to the effects of major operational changes takes time. However, as INZ phases out paper applications and moves towards a more comprehensive online platform, processing should speed up by the end of 2022.

 

It is worth pointing out that INZ is making some very substantial changes. Although its decisions are continually criticised, there is no denying that INZ has done everything it can to address immigration needs. One thing to remember is that New Zealand is a small country that has never truly learnt how to manage large numbers of people. For migrants from more populous countries, this is a major culture shock.