Why is New Zealand's net migration still so high?

The latest Stats NZ figures show that, in the 12 months to April 2019, migrant arrivals totalled 151,000 people, with a margin of approximately 1,500 either way, while migrant departures totalled 95,100, with a margin of approximately 1,200 either way.

 

Annual net migration was therefore estimated at 55,800 people, with a margin of approximately 1,600 either way.

 

The statistics look ‘high’, yet most migrants feel differently: New Zealand's immigration policies are becoming increasingly strict. If policy keeps tightening, how can net migration keep rising?

 

The answer is actually very simple: we need to define ‘net migration’ correctly. What exactly is net migration?

 

Stats NZ's chart shows that net migration = (non-New Zealand citizens arriving − non-New Zealand citizens departing) + (New Zealand citizens returning − New Zealand citizens departing).

 

From this, we can draw the following points:

 

1) New Zealand residents and permanent residents are included in the ‘non-New Zealand citizens’ category.

 

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2) The number of people entering New Zealand is not the number granted residency or citizenship, but simply the number entering through airports or the border. A large number of arrivals therefore does not mean that everyone entering New Zealand has been granted a residence, work or partnership visa.

 

3) Non-New Zealand citizens entering the country include people who have already been granted permanent residence. For example, someone granted permanent residence in 2004 who then left New Zealand to work in the UK and returned in 2019 would also be counted as an ‘arrival in New Zealand’.

 

 

In other words, net migration is calculated differently from the number of migrants approved by Immigration New Zealand, and the two cannot be equated. Even more interesting are the figures for Skilled Migrant Category approvals in recent years.

 

Financial-year statistics show, for example, that in 2015–2016, decisions were made on 30,546 skilled migrant residence applications, of which 4,790 were declined—a decline rate of 15.68%. In 2016–2017, 5,301 of 29,441 decisions were declines, a decline rate of 18%;

 

In 2017–2018, 3,338 of 20,423 decisions were declines, a decline rate of 16.34%.

 

Although the decline rate itself changed little, the total number of applications decided fell from 30,546 to 20,423 over two years. Applicant numbers decreased by 33%, a total reduction of more than 10,000.

 

This shows that the number of successful residence applications under the Skilled Migrant Category fell from 25,756 in 2015–2016 to 17,085 in 2017–2018.

 

Numbers do not lie. Whether New Zealand's net migration is rising or falling, the answer is plain to see.

 

(*Source: https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/net-migration-remains-high)

 

 

Written by Sonny Lam

Edited by Lin Zhu and Lesley Song

Images supplied by Shutterstock