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The data: does slowing tourism growth cloud the hotel market outlook?

New Zealand’s hotel industry has experienced a significant period of growth in recent years, but the market outlook remains highly uncertain as it moves into 2019.

Growth in international and domestic visitor numbers slowed in 2019 compared with recent years.
 
This trend is not confined to New Zealand; Australia has experienced a similar pattern.
 
With market dynamics continually changing and future growth rates uncertain, hotel investors need a more detailed understanding of both New Zealand’s tourism industry and its hotel market.
 
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US$50,000,000,000
 
According to Statistics NZ, total international visitor spending in New Zealand in the year ended March 2018 was NZ$16,000,000,000, up 9.6% year on year.
 
Total domestic visitor spending rose to NZ$23,000,000,000, an increase of 6.5%.
 
The tourism industry recently raised its visitor revenue target for 2025 from US$41,000,000,000 to US$50,000,000,000.

New Zealand’s main international visitor markets are understood to be Australia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom, together accounting for around 60% of total tourism spending.
 
Australia is New Zealand’s largest tourism market, accounting for 24% of international visitor spending. China ranks second at 15%.
 
 
40,400,000 guests

Statistics NZ reported on 15 August that 40,400,000 guest stays were recorded at hotels, motels, backpacker accommodation and similar establishments in the year ended June 2019, with guest nights reaching a record high.

Over the past year, 23,200,000 domestic guests and 17,200,000 international guests stayed overnight.
 
Compared with June 2018, domestic guests increased by 3.9%, while international guests decreased by 2.1%.

Accommodation statistics manager Melissa McKenzie said: “Although guest nights in New Zealand continue to grow, international guest nights in commercial accommodation have been declining, as they have over the past 7 months.”

The accommodation survey collects data on guests in short-term commercial accommodation, including hotels, motels, backpacker accommodation and holiday parks.
 
Rental properties and private accommodation, such as bed and breakfasts and holiday homes, are excluded.
 

82.6%

Slower growth in international visitor occupancy, combined with increased hotel room supply, has affected average occupancy and room rates.

A New Zealand market report released by Horwath HTL in June showed that Auckland had the highest average occupancy rate (AOR), at 82%, in the year ended April 2019. This was 2 percentage points above the average occupancy rate of TIA member hotels;
 
Queenstown is a highly desirable tourism destination. Although its AOR fell by 2.3 percentage points, its average daily rate (ADR) remained the country’s highest, at NZ$249.

Revenue per occupied room fell by almost 3% in the year ended April 2019, mainly because of weaker performance by Auckland hotels.
 
However, average occupancy rates increased in three regions outside Auckland: Rotorua, Nelson / Marlborough and Central Park.
 
Average occupancy rates in Wellington and other regions remained relatively stable.
 
For average daily rates (ADR), only Auckland and Christchurch recorded declines, while other regions remained relatively stable.


2600 rooms

According to the latest information from Colliers International’s New Zealand hotel database, 22 new projects comprising 2600 hotel rooms are under construction across the five main markets. A further approximately 35 projects comprising 6600 rooms are under discussion.

The long-term outlook for New Zealand’s tourism and hotel industries is one of continued demand growth.
 
The main challenge facing the industry is the imbalance between new hotel room supply and the pace of visitor growth, a problem that is particularly pronounced in Auckland.

The data shows that Auckland remains the main beneficiary of the current phase of hotel development, continuing to account for the largest share of new hotel rooms under construction nationwide.
 
The New Zealand International Football Club, due for completion by the end of 2019, together with the America’s Cup and APEC summit in 2021, will further drive hotel investment and development.