Get in early! The suburbs property buyers should watch in 2021

Pete Evans, head of residential projects at Colliers International New Zealand, expects demand for lifestyle-focused suburbs to increase in 2021. The 10 places on this list reflect a major shift in New Zealanders’ attitudes to work and home life in the post-COVID-19 era.

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“The pandemic has not only increased housing demand but also changed market supply,” Evans says. “Although nine of our top ten locations are in Auckland, Tauranga also deserves attention as a new engine of the New Zealand economy. Domestic travel will remain strong, and Tauranga’s economic momentum and relaxed, comfortable lifestyle mean it can meet a wide range of housing needs and cater for future growth.”

Evans and his colleague, Colliers residential projects director Jeff Davidson, also selected several suburbs on Auckland’s urban fringes: Papatoetoe in South Auckland and Warkworth on Auckland’s northern boundary, along with new development hotspots Millwater and Long Bay.

Evans and Davidson used residential development and other data to identify the best places to buy over the coming year. Their criteria also included relative affordability, with homes priced at around NZ$700,000 to NZ$900,000, and a high proportion of new homes under construction locally.

Evans believes the sharp increase in working from home during COVID-19 lockdowns has made living on the city’s outer fringes a viable option. “Views on the future of public transport vary, but road construction continues, and vehicle access remains an important consideration when people choose where to live.”

Davidson adds that the urban fringes are undergoing significant change because of their relative affordability.

“Many buyers are now looking for more land in these places. In Millwater and Long Bay, the same money buys a larger section. People also recognise that there are more job opportunities in the north, with some city-based businesses considering expansion around Silverdale. More locals are saying, ‘We can enjoy plenty of conveniences right where we are,’ and, ‘We don’t need to go into the city for entertainment or work.’

Davidson therefore believes the time to buy in these areas has arrived, even while rapid transit extensions and motorway improvements are still under way.

He says: “If you miss the opportunity and wait until everything is finished, house prices will be much higher.” That is one reason they have included Warkworth now, rather than waiting until the motorway opens in the middle of 2022.

“You have to move early to get ahead.”

Let’s look at the ten locations favoured by these experts and why they made the list.

1. Manukau

Auckland Council’s development agency Panuku has invested in developing 600 hectares in central Manukau and Wiri. Plans include a new integrated rail and bus interchange, a trades training centre for Manukau Institute of Technology and a pedestrian street. Locally, 200 new homes have been completed, with another 200 under construction.

1. Papatoetoe

Auckland Council has a 2.5-hectare development plan for the area, including rebuilding a shopping centre and supermarket, and completing and opening a new railway station and the Puhinui transport interchange. Evans says: “With new homes priced well below those in comparable areas, Papatoetoe offers excellent value and is an ideal location for first-home buyers, investors and buyers seeking smaller homes.”

1. Mt Roskill

Redevelopment of southern Mt Roskill is progressing well. Led by public housing agency Kainga Ora, thousands of new homes are under construction, with around 10,000 planned over the next 10 years. Evans says: “For buyers with limited budgets who also want an investment return, Mt Roskill is a suburb that should not be overlooked, with its established neighbourhood character and relatively central location.”

1. Onehunga

Onehunga has considerable growth potential, supported by a NZ$140,000,000 Panuku-led redevelopment programme, new housing, transport improvements and development of the local centre and wharf. New developments include 160 apartments at Fabric, 88 apartments under construction at Beachcroft and more than 100 apartments planned for a former workingmen’s club site.

1. New Lynn

Already a lively, thriving centre in West Auckland, New Lynn will continue to benefit from Auckland Council’s development plans. These aim to provide housing for 20,000 residents and 14,000 jobs locally by 2030. Work under way includes the Merchant Quarter upgrade, additional cycleways and new residential developments near the transport interchange.

1. Albany

Auckland’s 2050 vision anticipates Albany becoming one of the North Shore’s largest centres for living, working and recreation. Evans says it is a prime location for investors to watch. “A substantial increase in housing stock means Albany will remain popular with tenants.”

1. Long Bay

Changes to how and where people work as a result of COVID-19 have helped lifestyle-focused suburbs make the list. Evans says: “Local development has been carefully considered in every respect, including extensive reserves and parks to provide high-quality shared community spaces.” New townhouses and apartments in the area also offer more affordable prices.

1. Millwater

Millwater, on the Hibiscus Coast, has grown rapidly in recent years. It offers attractive surroundings, lush trees, beautiful sea views, convenient transport and amenities, and quick motorway access to central Auckland. Evans says: “The diverse mix of new housing, including standalone homes, townhouses and apartments, will attract more first-home buyers, young families, professionals and retirees.”

1. Warkworth

Just 45 minutes from Auckland, Warkworth is expected to grow to 20,000 people over the next 30 years. This commercial centre, primarily serving Matakana and nearby beach communities, retains a traditional small-town atmosphere. Completion of the State Highway 1 extension will provide strong impetus for further growth.

1. Tauranga

Colliers International’s Tauranga director Grant White says the city is one of New Zealand’s fastest-growing areas, with substantial new housing development and a diverse commercial and industrial base. Large numbers of people moving from Auckland have injected considerable economic energy into the area, helping it withstand the effects of COVID-19.