Latest figures: is the economy recovering and the property market turning? How can investors make smarter decisions amid uncertainty?

Early winter is usually a relatively quiet period for the market, but the latest Barfoot & Thompson figures show that home sales in June 2025 reached their highest level for that month in four years. The median house price also rose to NZ$981,500, a high for the year. As the winter chill set in, Auckland delivered an encouraging result.

 

Do these signals suggest that the market is about to turn, or is this merely a brief rebound? With economic and property market forces interacting, investors need a forward-looking perspective and sound judgement more than ever.

 

Against this backdrop, Barfoot & Thompson has organised a high-level economics and property investment forum featuring two prominent guests: renowned economist Shamubeel Eaqub and Simplicity co-founder Sam Stubbs, for an in-depth discussion of macroeconomic trends, property market developments and KiwiSaver’s investment potential.

 

Event theme

 

In New Zealand, KiwiSaver is closely connected to almost everyone in the workforce. It concerns not only your retirement but also the country’s economic future. But have you ever wondered whether your hard-earned retirement savings are being put to meaningful use? Are they simply sitting in overseas sharemarkets, rather than helping build our local communities, infrastructure and future development?

 

At this event, Shamubeel Eaqub and Sam Stubbs will share their forward-looking views on KiwiSaver: could a scheme originally focused on individual retirement savings become a national investment engine that drives New Zealand’s economic growth, eases housing problems and improves wellbeing for everyone? If you care about growing your personal wealth, the future direction of the housing market or New Zealand’s wider prospects, this is an important conversation you will not want to miss.

 

As one of New Zealand’s most influential economists, Shamubeel Eaqub stresses that the country faces an infrastructure funding gap of more than NZ$200,000,000,000, and that KiwiSaver is key to bridging it. He calls for more funding to be directed towards long-term domestic assets, such as public housing, transport infrastructure and small and medium-sized businesses, to deliver meaningful long-term investment returns.

 

Over the past two months, economist Shamubeel Eaqub has repeatedly noted that New Zealand’s property market remains in an adjustment phase, with high interest rates suppressing activity. He expects the current high-interest-rate environment could last until late 2025 or early 2026. With borrowing costs elevated and some buyers approaching the end of fixed-rate terms, the market may remain cautious in the short term.

 

However, Shamubeel also notes that investment models offering stable, long-term rental returns, such as build-to-rent, are attracting greater attention and could help improve the balance of housing supply and demand. He advises investors to use a flexible mix of interest-rate arrangements, such as staggered fixed terms and floating rates, while continuing to monitor structural changes in the rental market and medium- to long-term supply reforms.

 

The two guests point out: “It is unrealistic to base investment decisions on the expectation that house prices will keep rising.” With interest rates high and demographics changing, property investment needs to return to fundamentals, with an emphasis on sound judgement and long-term planning. Their recommendations include:

 

• Location: Quality locations remain resilient to risk;

• Financial structure: Keep borrowing under control and maintain stable cash flow;

• Market trends: Monitor population movements, urban renewal and government policy developments;

• Social value: Assess a project’s effects on the community and future sustainability.

 

About the speakers

 

Shamubeel Eaqub  is a well-known New Zealand economist who excels at explaining complex economic concepts clearly, engagingly and in ways that relate to everyday life. With more than 20 years of industry experience, he is currently chief economist at the non-profit organisation Simplicity. Shamubeel is widely recognised for his independent, bold views and has long focused on key issues including housing, social inequality and regional development.

 

Sam Stubbs  is co-founder and managing director of Simplicity, one of New Zealand’s fastest-growing KiwiSaver and investment fund managers. As a non-profit organisation, Simplicity aims to “do good while delivering good returns” and donates 15% of its management fees to charity. Before founding Simplicity, Sam held senior roles in New Zealand and international finance, including chief executive of Tower Investments, managing director of Hanover Group, and positions in London and Hong Kong at Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs).